Regional redistribution through SBA guaranteed loan programs

We document and quantify a new implicit transfer mechanism in the SBA 7(a) loan program that redistributes funds between US states. We use SBA 7(a) loan data in conjunction with Dealscan private corporate loan data to show that SBA 7(a) loan interest rates are much less responsive to predicted local loan default risk compared to private corporate loans. This redistributes funds from states with low default risk to states with high default risk. These transfers are positively correlated with the severity of local economic shocks during the Great Recession and the COVID-19 Recession. Therefore, even though it was unintended, the interest rates on SBA 7(a) loans acted as an automatic stabilizer mitigating regional economic shocks.

Assessment of cardiovascular & pulmonary pathobiology in vivo during acute COVID-19 (preprint)

Importance: Acute COVID19 related myocardial, pulmonary and vascular pathology, and how these relate to each other, remains unclear. No studies have used complementary imaging techniques, including molecular imaging, to elucidate this. Objective: We used multimodality imaging and biochemical sampling in vivo to identify the pathobiology of acute COVID19. Design, Setting and Participants: Consecutive patients presenting with acute COVID19 were recruited during hospital admission in a prospective cross sectional study. Imaging involved computed tomography coronary angiography (CTCA - identified coronary disease), cardiac 2deoxy2[fluorine18]fluoroDglucose positron emission tomography/computed tomography (18F FDG PET/CT identified vascular, cardiac and pulmonary inflammatory cell infiltration) and cardiac magnetic resonance (CMR identified myocardial disease), alongside biomarker sampling. Results: Of 33 patients (median age 51 years, 94% male), 24 (73%) had respiratory symptoms, with the remainder having non-specific viral symptoms. Nine patients (35%, n=9/25) had CMR defined myocarditis. 53% (n=5/8) of these patients had myocardial inflammatory cell infiltration. Two patients (5%) had elevated troponin levels. Cardiac troponin concentrations were not significantly higher in patients with myocarditis (8.4ng/L [IQR 4.0, 55.3] vs 3.5ng/L [2.5, 5.5], p=0.07) or myocardial cell infiltration (4.4ng/L [3.4, 8.3] vs 3.5ng/L [2.8, 7.2], p=0.89). No patients had obstructive coronary artery disease or vasculitis. Pulmonary inflammation and consolidation (percentage of total lung volume) was 17% (IQR 5, 31%) and 11% (7, 18%) respectively. Neither were associated with presence of myocarditis. Conclusions and relevance: Myocarditis was present in a third patients with acute COVID-19, and the majority had inflammatory cell infiltration. Pneumonitis was ubiquitous, but this inflammation was not associated with myocarditis. The mechanism of cardiac pathology is non-ischaemic, and not due to a vasculitic process.

Diagnostic performance of the combined nasal and throat swab in patients admitted to hospital with suspected COVID-19 (preprint)

Background: Accurate diagnosis in patients with suspected coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) is essential to guide treatment and limit spread of the virus. The combined nasal and throat swab is used widely, but its diagnostic performance is uncertain. Methods: In a prospective, multi-centre, cohort study conducted in secondary and tertiary care hospitals in Scotland, we evaluated the combined nasal and throat swab with reverse transcriptase-polymerase chain reaction (RT-PCR) for severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus-2 (SARS-CoV-2) in consecutive patients admitted to hospital with suspected COVID-19. Diagnostic performance of the index and serial tests was evaluated for a primary outcome of confirmed or probable COVID-19, and a secondary outcome of confirmed COVID-19 on serial testing. The diagnosis was adjudicated by a panel, who recorded clinical, laboratory and radiological features blinded to the test results. Results: We enrolled 1,369 consecutive patients (68 [53-80] years, 47% women) who underwent a total of 3,822 tests (median 2 [1-3] tests per patient). The primary outcome occurred in 36% (496/1,369), of whom 65% (323/496) and 35% (173/496) had confirmed and probable COVID-19, respectively. The index test was positive in 255/496 (51%) patients with the primary outcome, giving a sensitivity and specificity of 51.4% (95% confidence interval [CI] 48.8 to 54.1%) and 99.5% (95% CI 99.0 to 99.8%). Sensitivity increased in those undergoing 2, 3 or 4 tests to 60.1% (95% CI 56.7 to 63.4%), 68.3% (95% CI 64.0 to 72.3%) and 77.6% (95% CI 72.7 to 81.9%), respectively. The sensitivity of the index test was 78.9% (95% CI 74.4 to 83.2%) for the secondary outcome of confirmed COVID-19 on serial testing. Conclusions: In patients admitted to hospital, a single combined nasal and throat swab with RT-PCR for SARS-CoV-2 has excellent specificity, but limited diagnostic sensitivity for COVID-19. Diagnostic performance is significantly improved by repeated testing.

The 4C Initiative (Clinical Care for Cardiovascular disease in the COVID-19 pandemic): monitoring the indirect impact of the coronavirus pandemic on services for cardiovascular diseases in the UK (preprint)

Background: The coronavirus (COVID-19) pandemic affects cardiovascular diseases (CVDs) directly through infection and indirectly through health service reorganisation and public health policy. Real-time data are needed to quantify direct and indirect effects. We aimed to monitor hospital activity for presentation, diagnosis and treatment of CVDs during the pandemic to inform on indirect effects. Methods: We analysed aggregate data on presentations, diagnoses and treatments or procedures for selected CVDs (acute coronary syndromes, heart failure, stroke and transient ischaemic attack, venous thromboembolism, peripheral arterial disease and aortic aneurysm) in UK hospitals before and during the COVID-19 epidemic. We produced an online visualisation tool to enable near real-time monitoring of trends. Findings: Nine hospitals across England and Scotland contributed hospital activity data from 28 Oct 2019 (pre-COVID-19) to 10 May 2020 (pre-easing of lockdown), and for the same weeks during 2018-2019. Across all hospitals, total admissions and emergency department (ED) attendances decreased after lockdown (23 March 2020) by 57.9% (57.1-58.6%) and 52.9% (52.2-53.5%) respectively compared with the previous year. Activity for cardiac, cerebrovascular and other vascular conditions started to decline 1-2 weeks before lockdown, and fell by 31-88% after lockdown, with the greatest reductions observed for coronary artery bypass grafts, carotid endarterectomy, aortic aneurysm repair and peripheral arterial disease procedures. Compared with before the first UK COVID-19 (31 January 2020), activity declined across diseases and specialties between the first case and lockdown (total ED attendances RR 0.94, 0.93-0.95; total hospital admissions RR 0.96, 0.95-0.97) and after lockdown (attendances RR 0.63, 0.62-0.64; admissions RR 0.59, 0.57-0.60). There was limited recovery towards usual levels of some activities from mid-April 2020. Interpretation: Substantial reductions in total and cardiovascular activities are likely to contribute to a major burden of indirect effects of the pandemic, suggesting they should be monitored and mitigated urgently.

Cancer is associated with severe disease in COVID-19 patients: a systematic review and meta-analysis.

Cancer patients are vulnerable to complications of respiratory viruses. This systematic review and meta-analysis sought to examine the prevalence of cancer and its association with disease severity in patients with novel coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19). Searches were performed in MEDLINE, EMBASE and ScienceDirect from their inception until 28 April 2020. Severe disease was considered to encompass cases resulting in death or as defined by the primary study authors. Meta-analysis was performed using random-effect models. We included 20 studies involving 32,404 patients from China, the United Kingdom, the United States, Italy, Singapore, Thailand, France, India and South Korea. The pooled prevalence of cancer was 3.50% (95% confidence interval (CI) 1.70 to 5.80). The pooled prevalence was not moderated by study mean age, proportion of females or whether the study was conducted in/outside of China. Patients with cancer were more likely to experience severe COVID-19 disease compared to patients without cancer (pooled risk ratio 1.76, 95% CI 1.39 to 2.23). Our findings reiterate the need for additional precautionary measures to ensure that patients with cancer are not exposed to COVID-19, and if they become infected, extra attention should be provided to minimise their risk of adverse outcomes.

Maternal and neonatal outcomes associated with COVID-19 infection: A systematic review.

BACKGROUND: COVID-19 has created an extraordinary global health crisis. However, with limited understanding of the effects of COVID-19 during pregnancy, clinicians and patients are forced to make uninformed decisions. OBJECTIVES: To systematically evaluate the literature and report the maternal and neonatal outcomes associated with COVID-19. SEARCH STRATEGY: PubMed, MEDLINE, and EMBASE were searched from November 1st, 2019 and March 28th, 2020. SELECTION CRITERIA: Primary studies, reported in English, investigating COVID-19-positive pregnant women and reporting their pregnancy and neonatal outcomes. DATA COLLECTION AND ANALYSIS: Data in relation to clinical presentation, investigation were maternal and neonatal outcomes were extracted and analysed using summary statistics. Hypothesis testing was performed to examine differences in time-to-delivery. Study quality was assessed using the ICROMS tool. MAIN RESULTS: Of 73 identified articles, nine were eligible for inclusion (n = 92). 67.4% (62/92) of women were symptomatic at presentation. RT-PCR was inferior to CT-based diagnosis in 31.7% (26/79) of cases. Maternal mortality rate was 0% and only one patient required intensive care and ventilation. 63.8% (30/47) had preterm births, 61.1% (11/18) fetal distress and 80% (40/50) a Caesarean section. 76.92% (11/13) of neonates required NICU admission and 42.8% (40/50) had a low birth weight. There was one indeterminate case of potential vertical transmission. Mean time-to-delivery was 4.3±3.08 days (n = 12) with no difference in outcomes (p>0.05). CONCLUSIONS: COVID-19-positive pregnant women present with fewer symptoms than the general population and may be RT-PCR negative despite having signs of viral pneumonia. The incidence of preterm births, low birth weight, C-section, NICU admission appear higher than the general population.